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Among the posters of stylish models on the walls of Michaela Pütz's Bonn hairdressing salon hangs her Meisterbrief — the master craftsman's diploma that all German artisans must acquire before they set up their own businesses. The 40-year-old Pütz got hers 12 years ago, by attending six months of all-day classes on business management and crafts law at a cost of more than €12,000. Pütz's 21-year-old apprentice Susan, however, may not need to cram for a master's exam; the qualification, which dates back to the country's medieval guilds and exists nowhere else in Europe except Luxembourg, might be on the way out. German Economy and Labor Minister Wolfgang Clement says the Meisterbrief is a means of "market-access restriction" and its abolition will provide a "strong impulse for start-ups and employment." The German economy needs all the strong impulses it can get, but analysts and craftsmen doubt that abolishing the Meisterbrief will provide them.

Clement wants to do away with the qualification for 62 of the 94 professions that require it. Higher-risk trades such as heating engineering and plumbing would retain the Meisterbrief, but for the rest, 10 years of job experience would allow anyone who had successfully completed an apprenticeship to start their own company. Clement hopes the move, which will have its first reading in the Bundestag in early summer, will raise Germany's low percentage of self-employed, 9.3%, to the European average of 12.3% and reduce the number of people who work in these professions but don't declare their income to the taxman.

So far, so good. But critics think it's strange — and possibly futile — to single out the Meisterbrief when the real causes of the country's economic stagnation lie elsewhere. "We have no lack of potentially self-employed persons," argues Dieter Philipp, president of the National Federation of German Skilled Crafts and Trade. "On the contrary, we have a reserve of 130,000 master craftsmen who would be willing to strike out on their own if the economic situation made it possible. Our poor business figures have to do with the economic situation alone, not with questions that the handicrafts have to answer. What we need is a radical reduction of additional wage costs via reform of the pension and healthcare systems."

Philipp may not get what he wants. Michael Sommer, head of the German Trade Union Federation (DGB), is leading the opposition to Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's plans to trim back state benefits and make it easier for employers to lay off workers. Backed by left-wing members of Schröder's own ruling Social Democrats, Sommer warned there was a "danger" that the unions would break with the Chancellor if it wasn't possible to find "clean compromises." But while the players bicker, Germany's projected growth rate for 2003 has been revised down to a mere 0.75%; the number of jobless has swelled to 4.5 million; tax revenues are estimated to be €9 billion less than forecast; and harassed Finance Minister Hans Eichel recently admitted that, for the second year running, Germany would fail to keep its budget deficit below the 3% threshold required for the euro — and he wouldn't be able to balance the budget by 2006, as promised.

If the Meisterbrief ever is abolished, analysts say, some new businesses may open in the short term. But their chances of survival are slim. "Many will be based on unsound foundations without the managerial knowledge taught in the master's courses," says Gerhard Bosch, vice president of the Institute for Labor and Technology in Gelsenkirchen. "A spate of bankruptcies will be the consequence." Bosch also fears that few of these new and probably under-capitalized handicraft businesses will invest in vocational training, thus endangering the future of the crafts tradition itself. And Heinz Putzhammer, a DGB board member, thinks ditching the Meisterbrief may be poor marketing. Putzhammer says the Meisterbrief is "indispensable as a recognized seal of quality of the German handicraft sector."

Clement is unfazed. Although he admits that the current economic climate won't encourage handicraft start-ups in the near future, Clement's aide Rezzo Schlauch, the Economics Ministry state secretary, says the reform is "intended to have a medium- and long-term effect" and will be bolstered by a "mobilization of venture capital" through the state-owned KfW bank. Even if the proposed elimination of the Meisterbrief doesn't give Germany the economic boost it needs, it will put German artisans on an equal footing with their European colleagues, who don't need the certificate to open a handicrafts business in Germany. At least in that respect, Clement's move could turn out to be a masterstroke.

• URSULA SAUTTER | Bonn
• Will ending the master craftsman's diploma save Germany?